A recent study examining party affiliation among adults in the United States revealed that the biggest slice of the electorate, 43%, define themselves as Independent, meaning they are not committed to either political party.
According to the same report, Republicans and Democrats can each claim the solid allegiance of just 27% of voters.
The uncommitted multitudes like to explain that they assess each election based on the policies presented by the various candidates.
They boast that they cannot be taken for granted and are sometimes disdainful of those who vote based on party allegiance. An acquaintance of mine, Sean, a fellow Irishman and declared independent voter, long retired from the NYPD, who reads the Irish Echo every week and so is clear about my political preferences, approached me last week to confide his voting dilemma.
He told me that he has no time for Harris and less for Walz, and even though he hasn’t voted for a Democrat since JFK in 1960, John Kelly’s stern condemnation of Donald Trump has confirmed his suspicion that the Republican candidate is a “vain non-identity” who shouldn’t be let near the Oval Office.
Sean claimed to be consulting me for advice: “Should I hold my nose and give Harris the stroke or just stay away on November 5th?” He is a proud conservative who supported Republican Party candidates in every election for sixty years.
His decision to change on this occasion was nerve-wracking for him, and he wanted to explain his reasoning to me while asserting it would be a once-off event because he retains his dislike of Democrats, in his words, with all their works and pomps.
The high level of declared independents is misleading. Most of these voters - like Sean - lean heavily towards one of the two main parties, confirming that, despite the low declared political affiliation, the country is close to evenly divided. I estimate that the number of genuine independents is around 12% of the electorate.
Both parties are spending massive sums of money, counted in hundreds of millions, to influence the remaining undecided voters. Research shows that most people are driven by fear and emotion rather than rational arguments in the heat of political campaigns. In practice, this means that voters are influenced by messages that stress the negative rather than ones that highlight the positive.
Research scientists confirm that negative images and statements about candidates and policies cause heightened activity in the brain's prefrontal cortex, the part most associated with decision-making. Politics is a bare-knuckle fight, and our brains reflect that. Negative political advertising works and brain scans confirm its crucial importance in influencing unsure voters.
As Donald Trump told Bob Woodward: real power is fear. From the early stages of the campaign Donald Trump has named retribution as a major theme in his plans.
He does not hide his intention of extending the powers of the presidency to punish his political opponents. He has spoken openly about disregarding the Constitution. He believes, without any smidgin of credible evidence, that President Biden and Attorney General Merrick Garland are secretly cooperating in prodding the efforts of various attorneys and judges to convict him and land him in jail.
In recent times, he has made the outlandish assertion that his political opponents, exemplified by Nancy Pelosi and Adam Schiff, are “vermin” and “the enemy from within.”
According to his rhetoric, these Democrats are much more hostile to the well-being of the United States than America-hating leaders in Moscow and Beijing.
If elected, he plans to replace thousands of top civil servants in order to break out of the “deep state,” a derogatory expression about the work of the various bureaucrats in the many government departments.
Their replacements will be hired as toadies who follow instructions dictated by the White House. General John Kelly and dozens of other leaders who served during Trump’s first term as president have warned that he is an out-and-out fascist with little knowledge of history who has shamefully lauded some aspects of Hitler’s leadership.
This was a man responsible for the murder of over six million Jews and hundreds of thousands of American servicemen and women, not to mention the destruction of a whole continent.
Trump proposes a new tariff regime on goods coming into the United States. Nearly all the top economists predict this will lead to high inflation that will directly cost every family about $4000 a year. He will also cut income and corporate taxes that will largely benefit the wealthy and the super-wealthy.
The Harris/Walz alternative would direct nearly all taxation changes to help the poor and middle class. This contrast is becoming a major focus in the campaign's final days. Republicans, traditionally, claim that they are worried about the ballooning national deficit, pointing out that it is immoral to pass on debt to future generations. Their critique on this matter is entirely correct.
It is disgraceful and unethical to run up big bills that our children and grandchildren must pay with interest. Only Bill Clinton balanced the budget and reduced the deficit while the one whose term in office did the most damage by far in this area was Donald Trump.
It is noticeable that he or his main spokesmen do not mention the D word in the campaign.
However, the serious economists reviewing his plans are unanimous that if his policies are implemented, they will again balloon the national debt. I have not seen any study examining the impact on the election of the dual attempts at assassinating Mr. Trump.
Two acquaintances of mine, both seniors, whose political allegiance I am unsure of, stressed to me that the gunshot that clipped his ear was only a half inch away from killing him.
They concluded that divine providence protected him, and both agreed that he would surely benefit from a sympathy vote because of these failed attempts to assassinate him. Gaza looms over American politics.
October 7th involved a terrible terrorist act, but over 40,000 people have been killed since by Israeli fighter planes using bombs supplied by Washington.
The nightly pictures of hungry children trying to deal with their plight are haunting many Americans, and they will impact the voting on November 5th, especially in Michigan.
This is a hugely consequential election for the future of America.
Gerry O'Shea blogs at wemustbetalking.com
