Kerry's David Clifford is on course to be named Footballer of the Year again. [Inpho/Evan Treacy]

Dublin firepower can be decisive

This record breaking Dublin squad still hankers for one more shot at the big-time - and Sunday's showdown against Kerry provides those still there from the six-in-a-row trailblazers to write their own pieces of history in the All Ireland final pairing that every neutral the world over wanted to happen.

Both teams huffed and puffed before finally dismissing their semi-final opponents and you could say it was the ideal way to win a penultimate scrap. Play well enough to win but badly enough so that the respective managers can keep players guessing as to who will start and who will become the impact subs on July 30.

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Neither manager has been slow to drop and then reintegrate players in the past and as the run up to the big game commences, it is almost certain that there will be changes on both teams that actually lineout for the playing of the National Anthem.

It doesn't take too much football nous to guess that Ciaran Kilkenny will be there from the start for Dublin while Stephen O'Brien's second-half showing against Derry almost guarantees him a place from the throw-in as well.

When Jack O'Connor and Dessie Farrell sit down with their selectors and produce their game plan, a huge part of that will also concern the players who come on to see out the game. The modern GAA game is one of so much running and athleticism that certain players won't see out the 70 minutes plus added time. Starting well is important but having men at the ready to provide real impact on introduction can be the difference between winning and losing or in the managers' cases, of being seen to pull off a master stroke or freezing on the sideline on the big day.

Monaghan put it up to Dublin in the first semi-final, and Derry looked to have the holders' measure for all but the last six or seven minutes of this game. Indeed, had they taken even one more of their goal chances, we could be talking about the Oak Leaf county preparing for their first Sam Maguire showdown since 1993, when they went on to beat Cork and record their only outright victory in this revered old competition.

Kerry had played second fiddle and only the brilliance of Footballer of the Year David Clifford stood between them and oblivion. Manager O'Connor asked them to show leadership at half-time and they answered his call by becoming a better performing outfit for the entire second half. 

Finally too, they got to Odhran Lynch's excellent restarts and by winning three of those late in the game, they managed to turn a two-point deficit around to win by a similar margin.

They say semi-finals are for getting across the line and the men in green and gold managed to do this without showing too much of their hand as they prepare for the ultimate Gaelic football showdown.

That they got there was due to some lucky defending, little midfield impact, and an attack where only Sean O'Shea managed to play a supporting role to Clifford the younger until O'Brien was introduced at the break and helped win much more possession as well as scoring a gem or a point to nudge the game agonizingly out of Derry's reach.

You could tell that Jack O'Connor was happy that victory had come without sprinkles of stardust - it was a team going to the well of honest toil and working hard and finding just about enough to deliver. As Alex Ferguson once said, hard work is also a great talent to have and not enough people get credit for it.

After that close encounter with Derry, O'Connor looked to herald that all-round rolling-up-of-the-sleeves in his ranks. "There were several times during that (semi-final) game when we could have thrown in the towel. We were struggling badly in certain areas; they were getting through us too easily in the first half," he pointed out.

He went on: "The players showed leadership and really went after it in the second half; they showed the hunger and the desire that you need to get over these tight games. Derry played very well, you can't take anything away from Derry. They were fantastic for huge parts of that game and had us in big trouble. This was the test we expected and it will hopefully bring us on another bit and steel us for the final."

The big difference between displays in either half was their decision to drop off the Derry goalkeeper Odhran Lynch's restarts and assemble further down to try to successfully ambush the Northern game plan. "In the second half, we adjusted and tactically we dropped off their kick out a bit and formed a better defensive line a bit higher up the pitch. They didn't make the same amount of incursions into the scoring zone as they did in the first half. They were getting scores too easily in the first half but the leadership fellas showed, what David Clifford did was unbelievable; the man was doing everything; he was back in his own full-back line.

"The name of the game in semi-finals is to get over them; it doesn't have to be a champagne performance. We've two weeks to work on it, you'd expect that game to bring us on. It was an intense game. That was a ferociously intense game; Derry have some serious footballers," he stressed.

It was interesting that just as O'Connor was lauding Derry, his counterpart on Sunday Farrell was criticizing the media for not recognising how good Monaghan were and how close they ran Dublin before finally fading in the last 10 minutes.

"I couldn't understand the narrative around this game. It wasn't making sense to me. We knew the type of game that Monaghan were going to bring today and we knew it was going to be a really tough encounter and it took all our grit, determination and experience to get over the line. 

Anyone doing proper analysis on Monaghan would have seen that. I've never seen an improvement in a team like it in my time being involved in management. I know they had some poor performances earlier but the adjustments they made all the way through. Very cohesive. Everyone is really comfortable with the game plan. They used their goalkeeper Rory Beggan really well in trying to create overloads and mismatches and you have to be so careful in how you set up against that because they can expose you at the front of your defensive line through those overloads and mismatches." 

With the shadow boxing over in terms of both managers playing down their own performances, the final analysis is to see which team will be better prepared for this Sam Maguire showdown. It was a case of the old hands on the Dublin front coming to the fore with midfielder Brian Fenton, average up to this hour mark, leading the charge with two points to get his side over the line in the semi-final. 

Cometh the hour, Paul Mannion and sub Jack McCaffrey also cut loose and their four points prised daylight between the combatants with five minutes left. Then another seasoned old pro, Dean Rock, entered the fray and within a few minutes had contributed 1-1 on the scoreboard, which now showed seven points between the teams. A gross injustice to Monaghan but such is the ability of a serial winner like Dublin to inflict punishment, if they get an inch or space or a demi-second of time to create game-changing moments.

 With Con O'Callaghan having also contributed two second-half points, many Dub fans left Croke Park wondering if he and Mannion, and McCaffrey had been available against Kerry in last year's semi-final, would they have suffered a one-point loss or gone on to beat Galway in the final as the Kingdom did.  That was without contemplawhich luckily went outside of his post instead of nestling in the back of his net as an own goal. 

Farrell will have time to reflect on a mediocre performance and whether his team needs a shake-up to beat Kerry. Certainly his own decision to omit Ciaran Kilkenny again backfired as he had to turn to the Castleknock all rounder to help bail him out of a sticky wicket. Niall Scully never got going and added to his poor showing was a black card which meant Dublin had to play with 14 men for 10 minutes at the end of the first half. 

With Seán Bugler not lining out due to a calf niggle and expected to lose the race to be fit for Sunday, will Paddy Small, who came into the attack but failed to shine, hold onto his place? Colm Pasquel, the star turn with two goals against Mayo in the previous round against Mayo, failed to see any ball and was called ashore.  Will he start or will a dummy team have his name down and could Farrell instead reunite Dean Rock who scored 1-1 in his cameo role with O'Callaghan and the in-form Cormac Costello in the full-forward line? Unlikely, but you never know what to expect except possibly expect both managers to announce teams for the match day programme which will be different than the actual 15 who begin the battle at the throw-in.

If you were to make a case for Kerry, the first place you'd look is to the potential damage a high ball into David Clifford could cause in the Dublin fullback line. Mick Fitzsimons is on the threshold of nine medals, yet undoubtedly he faces his toughest hour trying to keep tabs on the Fassa superman. Clifford can play as a target man because of his strength and catching prowess and then has the swerve to make scoring chances for himself off left or right sides.

Do Dublin go negative and bring back a player to screen the long ball in - something they had initial success with last year before Clifford's movement sprung that trap? For this to happen the Kingdom will also need Paudie Clifford, the unsung hero, to raise his game and put in those radar long balls to his brother. More than that, Paudie will also need to kick over two or three points of his own so that the Dublin half back line may be inclined to look back instead of constantly augmenting their own forward line with speedy incursions.

The failure of the Kerry half-forward and midfielders to play anywhere near their normal game will be a big positive for O'Connor as he motivates these players to hit top form on Sunday. Both Diarmuid O'Connor and Jack Berry were outrun and outgunned by their Derry counterparts Brendan Rogers and Conor Close. 

Dara Moynihan, Adrian Spillane, Cifford the elder and Paul Geaney also failed to shine against the Oak Leaf men with the result that they were all replaced at various stages of the second half. They will have a point to prove to their manager since that game and there is no better man to use psychological warfare to get his charges wound up than O'Connor in these circumstances.

Those who see it as a Dublin victory will point to the middle third as an area where Farrell's men should hold sway. Certainly if Brian Fenton resumes where he left off in the semi-final when his two late points were seminal in transforming the game in the winners favor. Together with clubman Brian Howard, they have an ability to rule the aerial duels when goalkeepers are forced to go long when the forward press works to prevent short kickouts.

The pair also have an incredible work commitment and between them will ensure that one is back defending tigerishly while the other is bombing forward to open up the opposition's backline. It will be interesting to see how they manage Kerry's linchpin defender Tadhg Morley. Before his arrival in the defensive No 6 role of covering the D-area, Kerry were leaking goals like a sieve. 

When O'Connor returned as manager, one of his first decisions in his overhaul of the previous set-up was to stop the easy route to goal. It was a master stroke and saw his team give away only three goals in all championship matches last year as they won back Sam Maguire for the first time in a decade. Morley was the key man in that march to victory.
Derry, however, used their centre-back Gareth McKinless as an auxiliary forward and as well as scoring a goal, he got into position for a second shot which drew a remarkable reflex save from Ryan in the Kerry goal. You may have noticed too that Morley's name was seldom mentioned in the commentary in this game such was Derry's success in finding new avenues away from the centre to bear down on the Kingdom's parallelogram.

Dublin will have noticed this for sure and if McCarthy and McCaffrey in particular are given licence to go forward, they could have similar success by opting to create overlaps on the left side of the Kerry defense.

The case could be made too that if you look at both sets of forwards, Dublin have the more likely combinations to get scores. Kerry are too dependent on David Clifford with only Sean O'Shea and to a lesser extent Paudie Clifford finding the target over the blackspot with any sort of regularity.

Dublin have Costello currently on fire, Basquel with the ability as he showed against Mayo to take on defenders and score goals, Mannion, who can kick two or three long range scores, ditto Kilkenny while Rock can and will make a contribution if as most likely to is asked to see out the game. Ultimately, I think if O'Callaghan is in the mood and decides to show Clifford that he isn't the only superstar on view, then Dublin's firepower will see them home.

I am inclined to think that the big pitch and the big stage will spur him forward but should Dublin stutter like they have done all year except against Derry in the Div 2 final and Mayo in the second half of the quarter-final, then there is no better team than Kerry to take advantage. A case of first among equals but Dublin to steal the few percents needed to claim a win in what I think will be a tense and close encounter.

KEY PLAYERS FOR DUBLIN

Stephen Cluxton

Club: Parnells

Age:  41 

All Stars: 6

All-Irelands: 8

Dublin SF titles: 0

Position: Goalkeeper

When the history of modern GAA is written, the Dublin netminder will loom large across the pages. More than any other person, he has been responsible for the revolution in how the game is played with his restarts at the heart of Dublin's six-in-a-row of Sam Maguires.

On Sunday he can go into the pantheon of legends when he has the chance of winning his ninth All Ireland SF Celtic Cross. More importantly for the 41 year old is that he again gives Dublin an edge with his kickouts as well as keeping his full-back calm in the eye of the storm called David Clifford. 

A win will also ensure that his decision to come out of retirement was a master stroke by Manager Dessie Farrell but regardless of the outcome, Cluxton's performance over 20 years makes him a key player in the development of the game.

James McCarthy (Captain)

Club: Ballymun Kickhams

Age: 33 

All Stars: 4

All-Irelands: 8

Dublin SF titles: 2

Position: Wing Back

Like his former skipper Cluxton, the current captain of the Good Ship Dublin is looking to claim his ninth All-Ireland medal and if he can produce another top class display, he is in line to get the Footballer of the Year award as well.

McCarthy's importance to Dublin is both his ability to drive the team forward but also to fill in as an emergency marker in defence if one or other of his colleagues are struggling.  

That versatility means he can be a goal scorer or a goal stopper and should Mick Fitzsimons find the going too hot against current Footballer of the Year, David Clifford, don't be too surprised if the Kickhams man is asked to man the breach.

 Although 33, he has been in as good if not better form this season and a win against the Kingdom would crown his star-studded career.

Con O'Callaghan

Club: Cuala

Age: 27

All Stars: 3

All-Irelands: 5

Dublin SF titles: 0

Position: Full Forward

Finding Con O'Callaghan in 2016 was the injection Dublin needed to go from being a very good team to becoming the most exceptional one in the history of the game.

Time and again the Cuala man has been the go-to forward for Jim Gavin and Dessie Farrell and one thing you can be sure about is that Dublin will not win without a telling contribution from the full-forward.

Many believe that had he shaken off an injury and played in last year's semi-final, it would have been the Dubs and not Kerry who would have run out to face Galway in the 2022 All Ireland final. 

This year his form has been decent but he has the ability to light up a forward line and bring his colleagues into play - as was witnessed against Derry in the National League final when he made three goals for those around him.

Dublin's Con O'Callaghan. [Inpho/Ryan Byrne]

KEY PLAYERS FOR KERRY

Shane Ryan

Club: Rathmore

Age: 27

All Stars: 1

All-Irelands: 1

Kerry SF titles: 2

Position: Goalkeeper

Kerry's tradition of producing great goalkeepers from the time of Dick Fitzgterald, through Johnny Culloty and Charlies Neligan is in safe hands with the Rathmore man manning the posts.

However unlike those who lined out before him in this position, Ryan has adapted to the modern game and has a very good record with kick outs and also in joining the outfield play. 

Seldom was this better illustrated than when he joined his forward line to kick over a point from play against Derry in the recent semi-final at Croke Park.

 He is no slouch either at making the big saves and his block against Derry centre-back Gareth McKinless proved the turning point of the game.

Sean O'Shea

Club: Kenmare Shamrocks

Age: 24

All Stars: 2

All-Irelands: 1

Kerry SF titles: 0

Position: Centre forward

His free kick from half a mile out was the score that catapulted Kerry into last year's All Ireland final while simultaneously breaking Dublin hearts to lose out by a single point at the very end of the semi-final clash.

If David Clifford is the talisman of this Kingdom outfit, then O'Shea is the heartbeat of the side as his tireless work out the field and his ability to appear when needed to get a decisive score has proven a god send to Jack O'Connor ambition to win All Ireland at senior level in three different reigns.

There is no doubt Kerry will need his scores, just as they did in the semi-final in the second half against Derry, but he has a big game temperament and will be looking to complete a double, by landing his second Celtic Cross and also beating Dublin for two championships in succession.

David Clifford

Club: Fossa

Age:  24

All Stars: 4

All-Irelands: 1

Kerry titles: 3 (Senior); 1 (Junior Premier)

Position: Full forward

Even at 24, there are some who think Clifford the younger may be the best footballer ever to pull on a jersey. From his minor days, he has been an outstanding talent and more importantly a great scorer who never disappoints on the big stage.

The weight of a county will once again be on his shoulders on Sunday afternoon when he will be expected to deliver the majority of Kerry's scores with his left and right boots.

Some players recoil under such pressure but the Fossa man appears to grow in this spotlight. He knows he will be man marked, probably by Mick Fitzsimons, with possibly a screen man put in to cut off supply in his direction.

 He has shown an ability to overcome such tactics by roving out the pitch to play make for his colleagues and has the football intelligence to get back in and finish off scores in moves he was responsible for initiating.

 A Kerry victory guarantees him a second footballer of the year award - something that his performances already this year merit without a ball being kicked in the final.

 

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